You are conducting a monte carlo simulation to calculate oil reserves for a well using the volumetric method. The following data and distributions have been estimated, and the random numbers listed have been sampled for each distribution. Assume the properties are all independent. What is the calculated value of reserves in MSTB for this first iteration of the Monte Carlo simulation
Work this problem with pencil, paper and calculator, and show all work.
Distribution Random
Random Variable Type Parameters Number
Drainage area, ac lognormal L(95,42) 0.51441
Ner thickness, ft normal N(55,12) 0.41786
Porosity triangular T(0.1,0.16,0.25) 0.07318
Water saturation triangular T(0.2,0.34,0.46) 0.62036
Oil FVF, RB/STB uniform U(1.1,1.5) 0.30648
Recovery factor normal N(0.23,0.07) 0.2571