Now that you’ve calculated the probabilities, use them to calculate the expected value per contact. Note: You can further classify people in each category by their inclination to donate and their actual actions. For example, the category of those who donated last year will have three groups: people who will not pledge, people who will pledge but not donate, and people who will pledge and donate. Use the breakdown you get from this classification to find the probabilities in each group.
ast years donors: P (dontations from L) = P (pledge L) x P (donations / pledge L) = P (donations from L) = 0.50 x 0.80 = 0.40
probability donors from last year (L) will pledge again: 50%
probability that pledging donors will actually donate: 80%
Past donors: P (donations from P)= P (pledge P) x P (donation / pledge from P)
= P(donations from P) = 0.40 x 0.60 = 0.24
probability past donors (P) will pledge again: 40%
probability that pledging donors will actually donate: 60%
New contacts: P (dontations from N) = P (pledge from N) x P (donation / pledge from N) = 0.10 x 0.50 = 0.05
probability new contacts (N) will pledge: 10%
probability that pledging donors will actually donate: 50%