A group conducted a poll of 2067 likely voters just prior to an election. The results of the survey indicated that candidate A would receive 49% of the popular vote and candidate B would receive 48% of the popular vote. The margin of error was reported to be 3%. The group reported that the race was too close to call. Use the concept of confidence intervals to explain what this means.

(a) Since the difference between the percentages of the popular vote for the candidates is less than the 3% of voters who are undecided, the poll cannot predict the winner.
(b) Since the poll results do not show that one of the candidates has more than 50% of the popular vote, the poll cannot predict the winner.
(c) The margin of error suggests candidate A may receive between 46% and 52% of the popular vote and candidate B may receive between 45% and 51% of the popular vote. Because thepoll estimates overlap when accounting for the margin of error, the poll cannot predict the winner.
(d) Since the estimated proportions depend on the level of confidence, the candidate predicted to receive a greater percentage of the popular vote changes for different levels of confidence, so the poll cannot predict the winner.



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