A clinical trial tests a method designed to increase the probability of conceiving a girl. In the study, 520 babies were born, and 286 of them were girls. Use the sample data to construct a [tex]$99 \%$[/tex] confidence interval estimate of the percentage of girls born. Based on the result, does the method appear to be effective?

[tex]$\boxed{\ \ \ } \ \textless \ p \ \textless \ \boxed{\ \ \ }$[/tex]

(Round to three decimal places as needed.)



Answer :

Sure, let's go through the detailed steps to solve this problem using the sample data provided.

### Step 1: Determine the Sample Proportion
First, we need to find the sample proportion ([tex]\(\hat{p}\)[/tex]) of girls born in the study. The proportion can be calculated as:

[tex]\[ \hat{p} = \frac{\text{number of girls}}{\text{total number of babies}} \][/tex]

Given that 286 out of 520 babies were girls:

[tex]\[ \hat{p} = \frac{286}{520} = 0.55 \][/tex]

### Step 2: Calculate the Standard Error
The formula for the standard error (SE) of the sample proportion is:

[tex]\[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p} \cdot (1 - \hat{p})}{n}} \][/tex]

where [tex]\( \hat{p} = 0.55 \)[/tex] and [tex]\( n = 520 \)[/tex].

The calculated standard error is:

[tex]\[ SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.55 \times (1 - 0.55)}{520}} \approx 0.021817 \][/tex]

### Step 3: Determine the Z-Score for 99% Confidence Level
To construct a 99% confidence interval, we look up the z-score corresponding to a 99% confidence level, which is approximately:

[tex]\[ z = 2.576 \][/tex]

### Step 4: Calculate the Margin of Error
The margin of error (ME) is calculated using the formula:

[tex]\[ ME = z \times SE \][/tex]

Using the values obtained:

[tex]\[ ME = 2.576 \times 0.021817 \approx 0.056196 \][/tex]

### Step 5: Construct the Confidence Interval
Finally, we can construct the 99% confidence interval for the proportion of girls born. The formula for the confidence interval (CI) is:

[tex]\[ \text{CI} = (\hat{p} - ME, \hat{p} + ME) \][/tex]

Substitute the values:

[tex]\[ \text{CI} = (0.55 - 0.056196, 0.55 + 0.056196) \][/tex]

This simplifies to:

[tex]\[ \text{CI} = (0.494, 0.606) \][/tex]

### Conclusion
The 99% confidence interval estimate for the percentage of girls born is [tex]\( (49.4\%, 60.6\%) \)[/tex].

### Interpretation
To conclude whether the method appears to be effective, we would typically compare this confidence interval to the natural birth rate of girls, which is approximately 50%. Since the lower bound of our interval (49.4%) is very close to but below 50% and the upper bound (60.6%) is above 50%, this interval suggests some evidence that the method could be effective in increasing the probability of having a girl. However, because part of the interval still falls below 50%, the evidence is not overwhelmingly strong. It would be more convincing if the entire interval were above 50%.

Thus, based on this interval alone, we can say there is some indication that the method may be effective, but further research would be needed to draw a more definitive conclusion.