To determine the prediction most supported by the opinion polls, we need to compare the differences between the polling averages and the actual results for each state.
Here's the provided data:
1. National: Polling Avg. Clinton +4%, Actual Result Clinton +2%
2. Florida: Polling Avg. Clinton +0.3%, Actual Result Trump +1.3%
3. Michigan: Polling Avg. Clinton +6%, Actual Result Trump +0.3%
4. Pennsylvania: Polling Avg. Clinton +4%, Actual Result Trump +1.2%
5. Wisconsin: Polling Avg. Clinton +7%, Actual Result Trump +1%
### Step-by-Step Calculation of Differences
Let's calculate the differences between the polling averages and the actual results for each state:
1. National:
- Polling Avg: Clinton +4%
- Actual Result: Clinton +2%
- Difference: [tex]\( 4\% - 2\% = 2\% \)[/tex]
2. Florida:
- Polling Avg: Clinton +0.3%
- Actual Result: Trump +1.3%
- Difference: [tex]\( 0.3\% - (-1.3\%) = 0.3\% + 1.3\% = 1.6\% \)[/tex]
3. Michigan:
- Polling Avg: Clinton +6%
- Actual Result: Trump +0.3%
- Difference: [tex]\( 6\% - (-0.3\%) = 6\% + 0.3\% = 6.3\% \)[/tex]
4. Pennsylvania:
- Polling Avg: Clinton +4%
- Actual Result: Trump +1.2%
- Difference: [tex]\( 4\% - (-1.2\%) = 4\% + 1.2\% = 5.2\% \)[/tex]
5. Wisconsin:
- Polling Avg: Clinton +7%
- Actual Result: Trump +1%
- Difference: [tex]\( 7\% - (-1\%) = 7\% + 1\% = 8\% \)[/tex]
Summarizing the differences:
- National: 2%
- Florida: 1.6%
- Michigan: 6.3%
- Pennsylvania: 5.2%
- Wisconsin: 8%
### Evaluating the Summary
1. Clinton was likely to win: This would be the case if all differences were positive (polling values are greater than actual results), indicating that Clinton was favored in all the states by the polls.
2. Trump was likely to win: This would be the case if all differences were negative (polling values are less than actual results), favoring Trump in all states.
3. One candidate would win in a landslide victory: If any polling difference is greater than 5, it suggests a significant discrepancy, which might indicate a landslide victory.
4. The election would be too close to call: If no consistent pattern with large differences favoring one candidate is detected, it might be too close to call.
### Conclusion
- Since the differences are all positive, we understand that the opinion polls favored Clinton across all regions to some extent.
- Additionally, the differences in Michigan (6.3%), Pennsylvania (5.2%), and Wisconsin (8%) are significantly large, indicating strong support for Clinton in these states in opinion polls.
Hence, the opinion polls most supported the prediction:
Clinton was likely to win.
