To determine which of these statements represents a subjective probability, we need to understand the concept of subjective probability. Subjective probability is based on personal judgment, opinions, or subjective experience rather than exact mathematical computations or objective data. Let's analyze each option step by step:
1. Option 1: "If you toss three coins, the chance of getting all 'heads' is one eighth."
- This statement is based on exact mathematical probability. When you toss a coin, there are 2 possible outcomes (heads or tails). Tossing three coins means there are [tex]\(2^3 = 8\)[/tex] possible outcomes, and only one of these outcomes is all heads (HHH). Therefore, the probability is [tex]\(\frac{1}{8}\)[/tex], which is objective and calculated using mathematical principles.
2. Option 2: "If you apply for a job after graduation, your chance of getting the job is 83%."
- This statement appears to be based on personal judgment, opinion, or some form of an estimated assessment. The 83% chance of getting the job is likely based on factors such as the applicant's qualifications, the job market, the applicant's confidence, advice from career counselors, or other subjective criteria. It is not derived from a precise mathematical calculation or empirical data analysis, making it a subjective probability.
3. Option 3: "The chance Stephen Curry will make a free throw is 92%."
- This statement is likely based on empirical data collected from Stephen Curry's past free-throw performances. It involves analyzing historical data to arrive at the 92% probability, which makes this a frequency-based assessment. Hence, it is an objective probability based on past performance statistics.
Given the above explanations, we can conclude that the subjective probability among the given options is:
Option 2: "If you apply for a job after graduation, your chance of getting the job is 83%."
