Question 3 (Multiple Choice Worth 3 points)

As shoppers left a supermarket, they were asked if they used a shopping list and if they bought more items than they expected. The table contains the results:

\begin{tabular}{|c|l|l|l|}
\hline
& Bought only the expected items & Bought more items than expected & Row Totals \\
\hline
Had a shopping list & 0.43 & 0.17 & 0.60 \\
\hline
Did not have a shopping list & 0.22 & 0.18 & 0.40 \\
\hline
Column Totals & 0.65 & 0.35 & 1.00 \\
\hline
\end{tabular}

If a customer purchased more items than planned, what is the likelihood that the customer did not use a shopping list? Round your answer to two decimal places.

A. 0.51
B. 0.49
C. 0.28
D. 0.18



Answer :

Let's analyze the given data and solve the problem step-by-step.

The table provided shows the following data:

- The probability of a customer having a shopping list and buying more items than expected is [tex]\( P(\text{More items} \cap \text{List}) = 0.17 \)[/tex].
- The probability of a customer not having a shopping list and buying more items than expected is [tex]\( P(\text{More items} \cap \text{No list}) = 0.18 \)[/tex].
- The probability of a customer buying more items than expected overall is [tex]\( P(\text{More items}) = 0.35 \)[/tex].

We are asked to find the probability that the customer did not use a shopping list given that they bought more items than expected. This is a conditional probability and can be found using the formula for conditional probability:

[tex]\[ P(\text{No list} \mid \text{More items}) = \frac{P(\text{More items} \cap \text{No list})}{P(\text{More items})} \][/tex]

Substituting the given values into the formula, we get:

[tex]\[ P(\text{No list} \mid \text{More items}) = \frac{0.18}{0.35} \][/tex]

Now, by evaluating this expression, we get:

[tex]\[ P(\text{No list} \mid \text{More items}) = 0.5142857142857143 \][/tex]

Rounded to two decimal places, the probability is:

[tex]\[ P(\text{No list} \mid \text{More items}) \approx 0.51 \][/tex]

Thus, if a customer purchased more items than planned, the likelihood that the customer did not use a shopping list is approximately [tex]\(0.51\)[/tex].

Therefore, the correct answer is [tex]\( \boxed{0.51} \)[/tex].