To determine which prediction the opinion polls most supported, we need to analyze the polling averages and how they compare to the actual election results in several key states.
### Step-by-step Analysis:
1. Extract Polling and Result Margins:
From the table, we can extract the polling margins that favor each candidate and compare them to the actual election result margins for each state.
- National:
- Polling: Clinton +4%
- Actual Result: Clinton +2%
- Florida:
- Polling: Clinton +0.3%
- Actual Result: Trump +1.3%
- Michigan:
- Polling: Clinton +6%
- Actual Result: Trump +0.3%
- Pennsylvania:
- Polling: Clinton +4%
- Actual Result: Trump +1.2%
- Wisconsin:
- Polling: Clinton +7%
- Actual Result: Trump +1%
2. Identify Favorable Margins:
The polling margins can be represented numerically along with the actual results:
- Polling Margins: [4.0, 0.3, 6.0, 4.0, 7.0]
- Result Margins: [2.0, 1.3, 0.3, 1.2, 1.0]
3. Determine Number of States Favoring Clinton in Polls:
Count how many polling margins favored Clinton:
- Clinton was favored in all cases (National, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin)
- Total states favoring Clinton based on polls: 5
4. Determine Number of States Favoring Trump in Actual Results:
Count how many states favored Trump in actual results:
- Trump was favored in most states except for National:
- Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
- Total states favoring Trump based on actual results: 4
5. Conclusive Analysis:
- Polling: Clinton had favorable margins in 5 out of 5 cases.
- Actual Results: Trump had favorable margins in 4 out of 5 cases (excluding National).
From these observations, we can infer the prediction of the polling data versus the actual results. However, since all states in the polling data favored Clinton and in reality, most tilted towards Trump, we can see there is a discrepancy.
#### Conclusion:
The prediction stated that Clinton was likely to win based on polling averages. However, the actual election results show Trump winning in most key states. From this discrepancy, it is evident that the election result deviated from the opinion polls significantly.
Therefore, the suitable conclusion based on the analysis of gathered data is:
The election would be too close to call.
