A bag contains 4 blue balls, 7 yellow balls, and 4 white balls. Event [tex]$A$[/tex] is defined as drawing a blue ball on the first draw, and event [tex]$B$[/tex] is defined as drawing a white ball on the second draw.

If two balls are drawn from the bag, one after the other and not replaced, what is [tex]$P ( B \mid A )$[/tex] expressed in simplest form?

A) [tex]$\frac{2}{7}$[/tex]
B) [tex]$\frac{3}{14}$[/tex]
C) [tex]$\frac{4}{15}$[/tex]
D) [tex]$\frac{4}{11}$[/tex]



Answer :

To determine [tex]\(P(B \mid A)\)[/tex], the probability of drawing a white ball on the second draw given that the first draw was a blue ball, follow these steps:

1. Identify the total number of balls:
There are 4 blue balls, 7 yellow balls, and 4 white balls. The total number of balls in the bag is:
[tex]\[ 4 + 7 + 4 = 15 \][/tex]

2. Calculate the probability of drawing a blue ball first (Event A):
The probability of drawing one of the 4 blue balls from the 15 balls is:
[tex]\[ P(A) = \frac{4}{15} \][/tex]

3. Adjust the counts after drawing the first ball:
If a blue ball is drawn first, there are now 14 balls left in the bag (since the ball is not replaced). The counts are now:
- Blue balls: 3
- Yellow balls: 7
- White balls: 4

4. Determine the probability of drawing a white ball second given a blue ball was drawn first (Event B given A):
Now, with 14 balls left in the bag, the probability of drawing one of the 4 white balls is:
[tex]\[ P(B \mid A) = \frac{4}{14} \][/tex]

5. Simplify the fraction:
[tex]\[ P(B \mid A) = \frac{4}{14} = \frac{2}{7} \][/tex]

Therefore, the probability of drawing a white ball on the second draw given that the first draw was a blue ball, [tex]\(P(B \mid A)\)[/tex], is:

[tex]\[ \boxed{\frac{2}{7}} \][/tex]